We are only in the early stages of the Formula One summer break, but already two big bombshells have been dropped: Daniel Ricciardo is moving to Renault and Lawrence Stroll is buying Force India. These two changes coupled with some uncertainty among the future of other drivers on the team could make for a lot of changes to the driver lineup in 2019.
In fact, there is very little certainty with any team on the grid. The only team with a fully contracted driver lineup is Renault. The only other two drivers that are in a contract for 2019 are Max Verstappen with Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel with Ferrari. Other than those four drivers, the rest of the grid is free to move around the paddock and may very well do so.
There are specifically two drivers that could have a very big impact on the 2019 driver lineups: Kimi Räikkönen and Fernando Alonso. Räikkönen has been rumored for retirement for quite some time, but signed a one season extension with Ferrari for this season, but it’s uncertain whether or not the team will do the same him in 2019.
As for Fernando Alonso, it appears to be less and less likely that the Spaniard will be resigning with McLaren as time goes on. His frustration with the team has been rather public and his interest in alternative series like Indycar and the World Endurance Championship could see him make his exit from Formula One.
If Räikkönen retires, both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc have been linked to the team. As I’ve said before, I don’t see Leclerc entering the team just yet, since hiring a young driver with just 1 year of experience is something that is virtually unheard of at the Italian powerhouse. Carlos Sainz could be the more logical choice, but I think that his future is going to be taking the now vacant Red Bull seat. Pierre Gasly or Brendon Hartley have both been linked to that seat, but I’ve made an entire article outlining why I think that’s a horrific idea.
If Räikkönen does decide to call it quits after this season, I think that we may see Fernando Alonso take the seat for his final season in the sport. He has driven with the team in the past, has a huge fan base, could help the team in developing a championship winning car and has more than enough experience to play number two to Vettel while helping the team to secure strong enough results for a comfortable World Constructors’ Championship win. You may think that Ferrari wouldn’t be as easy going as McLaren has been on Alonso when it comes to missing races for extra-curricular activities, but it could be an opportunity for the team to borrow Leclerc for a race weekend and try him out.
Speaking of Leclerc, I don’t see him advancing to a higher team yet. He’s been mentioned when it comes to Williams and Force India, but I picture him staying with Sauber for at least another season as Ferrari grooms him to take Alonso’s empty seat on Ferrari in 2020. You have to remember that Ferrari has their eyes locked on Leclerc for a future seat and Sauber has a great relationship with Ferrari. The same cannot be said for Williams or Force India, both of which are supplied engines by Mercedes.
But who will drive alongside Leclerc on Sauber now that Marcus Ericsson is out of his contract? I don’t really see Ericsson staying with the team, although it’s entirely possible. Instead I think that the seat could be given to Antonio Giovinazzi, who had a good showing with the team in the past. But of course, I’ve overlooked Haas, which is also a team with a strong Ferrari relationship. It could be the perfect home for Leclerc, meaning the Sauber seat could possibly be one that simply goes to highest bidder, which could give it to a young driver with rich parents.
But who else would drive on Haas. I don’t think any of their current drivers are particularly great, but they are decent drivers. Of the two current ones, I think Romain Grosjean may have the greater chance of staying with the team. Robert Kubica is also rumored to take a seat at Haas, but I don’t see any logical link between Kubica and Haas, so I think that if he is hired with the team, it’s a purely PR-based decision.
Looking at the McLaren lineup, the Ricciardo’s announcement really changed this one up. If you had asked me before that announcement, I would have said that Fernando Alonso would be racing alongside Carlos Sainz, leaving a disappointing Stoffel Vandoorne out on his own. But now I don’t think that the team has many options. If my earlier prediction comes true and Alonso leaves the team, then I think Vandoorne will likely stay with the team, largely because of their lack of valid options. The other seat would probably be taken by Lando Norris, who would likely replace Vandoorne if Alonso stays with the team.
Force India will likely see some changes coming in response to the new ownership. I would be unsurprised to see Lance Stroll bump out Esteban Ocon. That is assuming that Sergio Pérez stays with the team, which given the new financial certainty for the team, it’s highly likely. This would see Ocon likely fall into the Williams team.
As for the second driver on the Williams team, this is a seat that could go to any number of drivers. I don’t think that Sergey Sirotkin has any future with the team, as he has performed quite poorly so far. Paul di Resta, Robert Kubica, Pascal Wehrlein and Kevin Magnussen are all names that have been linked to that seat. Williams a team that’s neither really good nor really bad. This seat is the only one that I don’t have a prediction for.
In summary, here are my 2019 driver lineup predictions so far this season. Do you agree or disagree? Post your predictions in the comments below!
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organization, employer or company. Assumptions made in any analysis contained within this article are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.
