With a shaky start to the season, Max Verstappen should be glad to have the summer break, in hopes that he will return to his previous form and kick the unfortunate habit of failing to finish races. However, this poor start to the season has led some fans to ask for Carlos Sainz to be given a chance with Red Bull. But why?
Having scored 35 points so far this season for ninth position in the World Drivers’ Championship, it’s safe to say that Sainz has proven to be a solid driver this season. He has outperformed his teammate on Toro Rosso and could be a good candidate for a move up to a bigger team.
That being said, I don’t see anything particularly thrilling or eye-catching about Sainz; nothing that would make me offer him a contract if I were a scout for a Formula One team. I mean, off the top of my head I can’t even think of a single highlight worthy moment involving Sainz this season. That’s not to say that there hasn’t been a moment worthy of the highlight reel, but it’s wasn’t a memorable enough moment; and that’s not a good thing.
Four of the most recent Red Bull drivers were recruited directly from Toro Rosso. So being a part of the feeder team does give you a good chance of making it to the big team. But Red Bull’s history shows that their driver selection is not entirely about performance. Just look at how Jean-Eric Vergne was overlooked twice for a promotion, despite having been arguably the better driver on both occasions.
Sebastian Vettel was nothing special when he first started at Toro Rosso, but he massively improved quickly and was able to get great results at the second of the season. His pole position and win in Italy was likely the result that give him the seat at Red Bull.
Daniel Ricciardo also wasn’t a particularly special driver when he first started, although he was fairly consistent. It wasn’t until his second season that he actually started to bring in good results and then he was promoted to Red Bull, partly aided by Mark Webber’s retirement.
Max Verstappen was getting good results at Toro Rosso almost right out of the gate. His promotion was largely due to Daniil Kvyat’s downfall. Even still, Verstappen’s contract to Toro Rosso was very much pushed by the hype.
But we have to look at why Red Bull selected Kvyat over Vergne when Vettel moved to Ferrari. Sainz had outperformed Kvyat the season prior, but he didn’t make the cut. It wasn’t about pure performance, it was about the potential for growth. It’s clear that the team management saw more potential in Kvyat than in Vergne. That’s the common factor between the Red Bull driver selections and it’s very much the same reason why Sainz will never get promoted.
The fact is that Sainz is pretty much performing identical to how he performed in 2016 by this point. There is virtually no improvement. Sure, he scored a lot more points in 2016 compared to 2015, but that’s because Toro Rosso was no longer competing with Lotus and essentially ranked up on the grid.
As much as I think Sainz is a good driver, I think that it’s time to face the fact that a Red Bull seat is not coming. If there is no Red Bull opportunity in sight at this point in his career, it’s not coming ever. Sure, he could wait on Toro Rosso to be at the right place at the right time when one of the current Red Bull drivers leaves the team, but how long will that take? It would be a tremendous waste of a career to have a driver waiting for an opportunity that isn’t coming.
It’s time for Sainz to start exploring other options for when he is able to break free from Toro Rosso.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organization, employer or company. Assumptions made in any analysis contained within this article are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.
