The 2015 World Championship season resumes in China, at the Shanghai International Circuit for round three. There is no precipitation in the weather forecast for the race and the previous sessions were dry. The circuit has a few sectors that are similar to Malaysia, but the not nearly as much heat and humidity. This track has a very difficult first sequence of corners and it will present a difficult situation for the drivers and require a ton of setup work prior to the weekend. The most critical section of the track is the spiral corners before the fastest segment of the track. The faster a driver gets through that section, the faster their car will be on the top speed straight. Drivers need to be confident to be able to push the car to the limit without the rear of the stepping out. The two long straights are the ideal place of overtaking and this is where the more powerful cars like the Mercedes will gain the advantage. This track provides the tyres with a lot of stress, as the high speed corners put a lot of pressure on them.
Again, there is no secret that the Mercedes team, in particular Lewis Hamilton, has the performance that is required to take the victory in China. Hamilton has topped the time charts in all of the sessions, but Ferrari is not far behind. Red Bull and McLaren have given us quite a shock this weekend. Both teams seem to have improved; Red Bull getting third position in free practice two and McLaren setting some descent lap times. Although it’s not really a shock, the Manor team was at the rear of the field in all of the sessions, but was running both cars. This is a relief considering the amount of questions that came up, questioning whether the team would be able to get both cars functioning for China.
As for the race, it should be no shock for Lewis Hamilton to take the victory in China. Everyone is optimistic that Ferrari will be able to repeat their Malaysian victory; however, this is a reality that is likely not to happen. Although the team showed their pace in the early sessions, they just don’t have the pace to take the victory in China. Their win in the last round was largely due to the high temperatures and poor race strategy from Mercedes and is unlikely to be repeated so soon. It will be tight, but I think that it isn’t unreasonable to predict that Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari will be in P2. It is clear that Nico Rosberg just isn’t as good as he was last season. He appears to be entering some sort of decline, as he failed to provide as close of a battle with his teammate as we saw last season. It’s not clear whether he is just discouraged by his loss last season or he is under too much pressure from his fans or his racing career has peeked. Vettel’s car has the pace and he has the skill to easily overtake Rosberg.
I would think that Rosberg could hold onto the bottom step of the podium, but the second Ferrari car, driven by Kimi Räikkönen, won’t be far behind. Räikkönen’s performance in Malaysia has been largely overshadowed by his teammate’s victory, but would be fair to say that Räikkönen could have been more a challenge to Mercedes if he hadn’t suffered an early puncture. Although he was over 40 seconds behind Rosberg at the end of the race in Malaysia, it showed phenomenal skill for him to be able to pilot the car into fourth position despite his early misfortune. I would place Räikkönen in fourth position again here in China.
The fifth position is up for grabs. All of the cars seem to be so much closer to each other this season, as opposed to last year. And with teams like Sauber and Toro Rosso performing much better, it could be anyone. The team many people forget about is Williams. The team is strong and has a strong engine in the back of the car, running a Mercedes power unit. Of the duo, Valtteri Bottas is my choice for P5. He will be starting from fifth on the grid, one position behind his teammate, Felipe Massa. However, his Brazilian teammate doesn’t appear to be fast enough to hold off his teammate.
Although the Shanghai International Circuit is far from being the most thrilling race of on the calendar, it is also far from being boring. It’s a fast and high speed track and should provide us with lots of entertainment. I will certainly be watching, even though the race will be live at 2am in my area. Oh, the things we do for the things we love.
