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2015 Malaysian Grand Prix Predictions

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The 2015 season resumes this weekend from the Sepang International Circuit in Kuala Lumpur for the Malaysian Grand Prix. Despite early forecasts plagued with rain, all of the free practice sessions leading up to the race were dry. However, rain visited the circuit during qualifying. As usual, the temperatures were hot and highly humid. These temperatures took a toll on the cars, in particular the tyres. Drivers like Felipe Nasr from Sauber complained about the issues with the tyres on Friday: “…we were struggling with the rear tyres due to the very high temperatures.” The forecast for race day is suggesting more humidity and the potential for some rain.

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This track is full of a balanced combination of fast corners that require little braking and tight corners that require perfect handling from the car. Teams will be trying to give the cars an equal mix of speed and downforce, but it will be important for them not to replace too much speed for downforce. Doing so will cause the car to lose time in the two consecutive long, high speed straights which are located at the end of the lap, where it is vital to defend your position and overtake the cars ahead. Of course, more downforce will be required if the race is in fact held in wet conditions. Hopefully we will see a more populated grid and more finishers than we saw in round one at Australia.

Both Fernando Alonso and Valtteri Bottas have returned to action after missing the first race of the season. Alonso was recovering from a concussion, which he suffered during the pre-season test in Barcelona. Alonso has told media that before the accident the car had “heavy” steering and the team has stated that there is nothing in the telemetry to indicate a mechanical failure. This has led many to believe that the crash was caused by the strong winds on the track, as it was originally reported. Bottas has returned after recovering from back pain caused by a small tear in the annular part of a disc in his lower back which occurred during qualifying for the first race of the season. The driver reported that he still feels a little pain, but claims that he is still fit to race. The FIA has warned the driver that he must withdraw from the race if the pain starts up again, to avoid further injury.

Manor Marussia made their first appearance of the season, sporting a rather bare car which they rushed to build. With Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi behind the wheel, the team will be hoping to at least finish the race. After arriving in Australia, much to the shock of the fans after the team went bankrupt last season, the team discovered an engine software issue that prevented them from running the car. The issue was apparently caused by the team having to wipe all of the computer equipment to prepare it for auction before the team was bailed out. The team was forced to pay all travel expenses to Australia, a cost that is normally covered by the FIA. The issue looks to be fixed, since the team ran laps in the other sessions this weekend, so we can expect to see them on the grid on race day.

Sauber will be looking to capitalize and add to their stupendous results in Australia, which have put the team in third position for the World Constructors’ Championship. The team performed quite well in the free practice and qualifying sessions, earning ninth and sixteenth on the grid. With the majority of their legal troubles behind them, the team will focusing on getting a great result. Mercedes will also be looking to grow their lead in the championship, despite Red Bull’s complaints about the superior Mercedes performance.

It is pretty clear at this point, that unless the Mercedes pair takes a wipe out, they will wrap up another 1-2- finish. They locked out the front row of the grid and dominated the other sessions this weekend, despite limited running by Lewis Hamilton during the first free practice session. Hamilton looks like he has the speed to take the win, but Nico Rosberg shouldn’t let it go easy. However, it does look like there is as much tension between the teammates as there was in 2014. They seem to be on pretty good terms with each other, even pulling up side-by-side on the cool down lap in Australia and giving the thumbs up to one another.

Perhaps the best team change of the season has been Sebastian Vettel’s move to Ferrari from Red Bull. Red Bull was missing performance in the previous season and had lots of mechanical issues, most of which seemed to be magnetized to Vettel. It would appear that the team is on the same path again for this season, but Ferrari has greatly improved. Despite also lacking performance in 2014, the Italian team looks to be in a much better position for 2015, with a much improved car. He should be able to repeat his podium finish, to claim the bottom step of the podium.

Despite the team’s reliability issues in the season opener, Red Bull should be able to get at least one driver into the top five. Lots of people would think that Daniel Ricciardo would be the one in the top, but I would have to suggest Daniil Kvyat. Kvyat made a good performance in the free practice sessions and proved to be at nearly the same pace as his teammate during the qualifying, even under the wet conditions.

Wrapping up the final of the top five spots will be Valtteri Bottas. Despite missing the first race of the season, Bottas ran all of the tests and the sessions prior to Australia, so he didn’t miss out on a long of driving time. So long as Bottas doesn’t end up dropping out of the race because of his back, I am confident in suggesting that he will be in P5 by the end of the Grand Prix. The Williams car, with the Mercedes power unit, appears to be catching up to the pace set by the Mercedes car.

One of the big concerns of this race is the rain forecast. We witnessed a horrible accident in Japan because of the wet conditions. This was the only rain race, with the exception of Hungary, so we never really got to see the full performance of the Pirelli wet tyres. The largest worry is that there will be a repeat of Jules Bianchi’s accident. Pirelli have worked very hard to provide us with the best wet tyres that they could develop. I sincerely wish all of the drivers the best of luck, in what will hopefully be a safe race.

Top Five Prediction
1  L. Hamilton
2  N. Rosberg
3  S. Vettel
4  D. Kvyat
5  V. Bottas